I just ran a new electroal college forecast for the 2008 presidential election based on Intrade.com's state-by-state election futures markets.
The forecast for August 21, 2008:
McCain: 227 electoral votes
Obama: 311 electoral votes
This is the same totals as my last forecast on July 13.
The difference this time is the closest states.
Nevada 48.1 Obama, 46.0 McCain
Virginia 49.0 Obama, 47.0 McCain
Ohio 50.0 Obama, 45.0 McCain
However, if McCain wins all three of these states, Obama still comes out ahead (in this forecast) 273 to 265.
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