Intrade is now publishing a real-time map and calculation of the forecast that I have been publishing for months.
The current electoral college forecast:
Obama: 338
McCain: 200
Obama is more valuable in the futures market to win Florida, Virgina, Ohio, Nevada and Colorado. If McCain loses any of these states in the election it makes it very difficult for him to get to the needed 270 electoral votes.
Not surprisingly, the market for the winner of the election has swung heavily toward Obama, since McCain was slightly ahead in my last update. Obama now leads 62.0 to 37.8.
There is still hope for McCain though. The Intrade market for the Wall Street Bailout to be approved by September 30 was at 90 three days ago. It now sits at 2.
Want to create various election scenarios of your own? This site has a clickable map.
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